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George Gilder on "The Coming Creativity Boom"

George Gilder

OK, I know that George Gilder is a very controversial guy, and that he lost a lot of money for his investors (and himself) in the late ’90s and early 2000s. So, he’s a lousy investor. But, that doesn’t detract from the fact that he can speak and write about the future of technology in ways that can make your head spin and leave you gasping for breath (and, if you’re not very careful, calling your stockbroker to increase your margin account).

His article in the November 10, 2008 issue of Forbes is typical Gilder – thought provoking, inspirational, optimistic and (I hope) right:

The real source of all growth is human ingenuity and entrepreneurship, which often thrive in the worst of times–and are always surprising.

Knowledge is about the past; entrepreneurship is about the future. In a crisis the world of expertise pulls the global economy ever deeper into the past, where accountant-economists ruminate on the labyrinthine statistics of leviathan trade gaps, tides of debt and deficits, political bailouts and rebates, regulatory clamps and controls, all propping up the past in the name of progress.

The crucial conflict in every economy, however, goes on. It is not between rich and poor, Main Street and Wall Street, or even government and the private sector. It is between the established system and the new forms of wealth rising up to displace it–all the entrenched knowledge of the past and the insurrections of futuristic enterprise and invention.

A Typical Gilder Graph

Gilder goes on to identify four critical areas of development: cloud computing, graphics processing, nanotech engineering and energy-saving construction materials.

Read the full article …..

The FTC and DOJ – "So Sorry, but When it Comes to Sherman Action Section 2 Conduct, We Can’t Agree on What the Law Is, or What it Should Be"

The Federal government has two antitrust enforcement authorities – the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. These two agencies have partially overlapping enforcement authority over civil cases, and they often collaborate in setting antitrust policy. Although the federal courts are the final arbiters of the federal antitrust laws (which are statutory, and therefore originate with Congress), the business community relies heavily on the Justice Department and the FTC to provide their views on the law. Accordingly, from time-to-time the Justice Department and FTC issue detailed joint guidelines. (Examples include: Collaborations Among Competitors, 2000; Antitrust and IP Rights, 2007; and Antitrust Licensing Guidelines, 1995).

The DOJ/FTC joint reports are a big deal – they often include lengthy hearings, prepared testimony and position papers from interested parties, proposed guidelines, revised guidelines, and so on, until (drum role ….) the big day when the final report is issued. And, as a result, these reports are given great weight by the antitrust community – and by that I mean the vast army of antitrust lawyers and economists who endeavor to understand this stuff, harmonize it with court decisions (where possible), and advise their clients on how to behave.

So, it’s no understatement to say that it is an unwelcome surprise when the federal antitrust enforcement agencies can’t agree on the law. Yet, this is what occurred when the Justice Department issued a report entitled “Competition and Monopoly: Single Firm Conduct Under Section 2 of the Sherman Act“. This mammoth, 200-plus page document followed public hearings that took 19 days stretched over a year, and included the the testimony of over 100 witnesses. The Report was finally issued in September 2008, 27 months after this process began. Broadly speaking, the Report addresses the topics of monopolization, predatory pricing, tying arrangements, refusals to deal and exclusive dealing. This is referred to as “single firm conduct” as distinguished from joint action (contracts, combinations or conspiracies) under Section 1 of the Sherman Act.

Needless to say, a Report of this magnitude and gravitas is of great interest; it provides a summary of the law to date on each topic area, discusses the hearing testimony, and then describes the federal enforcers’ views on the topic. Since the law isn’t static, these reports tell the public in which direction the enforcement authorities see the law moving and therefore where to expect enforcement activity However, although the DOJ and the FTC began this project together in June 2006, the DOJ finished alone. Why would this be?

As you may have guessed by now, the FTC disagreed with Justice, and therefore refused to join in the Report. In addition, the FTC Commissioners (those are the top folks at the FTC) issued dissenting “Statements” the same day that DOJ issued its report.

Of course, antitrust enforcement can be highly political. The Executive Branch appoints the Attorney General, who in turn implements the wishes of the President, at least most of the time. Some administrations are tough on antitrust enforcement, and others are better referred to a “anti-antitrust.” The President also appoints the five FTC commissioners, but the appointments are for seven year staggered terms, and no more than three of the commissioners may be from the same party. Traditionally, perhaps in part for these reasons, the FTC has tended to be more politically independent than DOJ. Very few Commissioners serve more than one term, and they typically fade back into academic or consulting practices when their term is up.

With Alberto Gonzalez as Attorney General, and knowing what we know now about how politicized DOJ was during the period that this report was being prepared, one can only wonder what went on behind the scenes during this process. However, law enforcement agencies don’t present their public disagreements in political terms, and here the public debate was conducted on the higher planes of economics and competition law. All four current FTC Commissioners (one seat is vacant) issued dissenting statements. Three of the Commissioners (but not the Chairman, who was more tactful than the others) argued that the DOJ had misstated the law on Section 2 conduct and had proposed legal standards that would, in their words “be a blueprint for radically weakened enforcement of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.” They disagreed on what the law is and what the law should be.

Quoting further from the Statement of the three dissenting Commissioners:

In short the Department’s Report erects a multi-layered protective screen for firms with monopoly or near-monopoly power. As an inevitable consequence, dominant firms would be able to engage in these practices with impunity, regardless of potential foreclosure effects and impact on consumers. Indeed, it appears that the Department intends for this screen to apply even when a firm uses two or more of these practices collectively, instead of just one practice individually.

Strong words from two agencies that the public expects to work out their differences behind closed doors and present a common front to the world.

This post is being published on the eve of the Presidential election. If we have a Democratic President in 2009, the law of Section 2 of the Sherman Act, as described in this Report, could soon become a footnote in American antitrust jurisprudence. However, the authors of the DOJ report, recognizing that acceptance of their views may be short-lived, might not look at the product of their labors so hopelessly. In their view, the Report may lie dormant during a Democratic administration, only to be revived at some unknown future date (perhaps as soon as four years), when its approach to antitrust enforcement returns to favor.

In re Bilski – The Pendulum Swings

Those who take an interest in patents — inventors, litigants, lawyers, judges, pundits, trolls, and on and on — have been waiting with bated breath for the CAFC’s decision in In re Bilski. Is it a game changer for much-maligned “business method” patents? How far does it go in narrowing the patentability of business method processes? How will the courts apply it? How does it affect pending or contemplated cases? Is the Supreme Court likely to accept an appeal?

It seems that almost every patent lawyer in the country feels compelled to write about this decision. Tens of thousands of words will be written. Indeed, I would swear that some lawyers pulled all-nighters on Thursday night so they would be the first to write about this case by Friday morning, and get a jump on the competition.

To sort through the noise, my recommendation is that you go to the Patently-O blog. Start here, then search Patently-O for “Bilski”. I’m confident that this blog will collect most of the commentary on this case you are likely to need.

See also: The Most Anticipated Patent Case Ever

"Excuse me, where is the Google Terminal?"

As expected, the proposed Google Book Search settlement has led to a lot of scrutiny, criticism and questions. Here is a link to the 125 page Settlement Agreement(without attachments; pdf). Here is a link to the page that holds the full agreement which, with attachments, is over 300 pages long).

Both Larry Lessig (“IMHO, this is a good deal that could be the basis for something really fantastic”) and Wade Roush(“Book Search settlement contains some major disappointments”) have taken a first crack at trying to decipher this settlement (Roush – “exhaustive, labyrinthine”) and figure out who, amongst the many stakeholders, are the winners and losers.

Here is a particularly interesting paragraph from Wade Roush’s article:

. . . [T]he devil . . . is in the details. If you read the agreement, you’ll see that it restricts each public library to exactly one Google terminal. Tens of millions of books online—but at any given moment, no more than 16,543 people are allowed to read them without paying. (That’s how many public libraries and branches there are in the United States, according to the American Library Association—one for every 18,500 Americans.)

So, America’s librarians will be hearing these words for generations to come: “Excuse me, where is the Google Terminal?”  Or perhaps the librarians will receive phone calls asking: “Hi, how long is the line for the Google Terminal?”

Much more to follow.

[n.b. It appears that Harvard is unhappy with the terms of the proposed agreement, and is withdrawing in-part from its participation in the scanning project]

Welcome to the Metaverse

Wade Roush (technology journalist and chief correspondent at Xconomy) wrote an extraordinary article in the MIT Technology Review in 2007 which I’ve had in my “must re-read” pile for a while. Recently I picked it up and noticed that the article is accessible in full on the Technology Review web site (free registration required).

Here is a brief excerpt from the article, modestly entitled Second Earth:

[w]ithin 10 to 20 years–roughly the same time it took for the Web to become what it is now–something much bigger than either of these alternatives [Second Earth or Google Earth] may emerge: a true Metaverse. In Neal Stephenson’s 1992 novel Snow Crash, a classic of the dystopian “cyberpunk” genre, the Metaverse was a planet-size virtual city that could hold up to 120 million avatars, each representing someone in search of entertainment, trade, or social contact. The Metaverse that’s really on the way, some experts believe, will resemble Stephenson’s vision, but with many alterations. It will look like the real earth, and it will support even more users than the Snow Crash cyberworld, functioning as the agora, labo­ratory, and gateway for almost every type of information-based pursuit. It will be accessible both in its immersive, virtual-reality form and through peepholes like the screen of your cell phone as you make your way through the real world. And like the Web today, it will become “the standard way in which we think of life online,” to quote from the Metaverse Roadmap, a forecast published this spring by an informal group of entrepreneurs, media producers, academics, and analysts.

This is extraordinary, futuristic stuff, but it reads like a valid prediction of the future. Click here to read the uncut article (which is over 7,000 words). If you have trouble accessing this page (perhaps because you need to register), start here to register and navigate to it.